Is Ukraine really turning the tide against Russia? Western media coverage has increasingly focused on Ukraine’s drone strikes, Russia’s economic difficulties and mounting battlefield losses, prompting claims that Vladimir Putin is under growing pressure.

But what is actually happening on the battlefield? Who has the strategic advantage as the war enters its fifth year, and can Russia consolidate its hold over the Donbas?

Is there a growing risk of a wider confrontation between Russia and the West? Has the war in Iran diverted American attention and depleted key weapons stocks needed by Ukraine? Is Moscow losing faith in Washington’s ability to honour any future agreement? And with Russian drones and aircraft increasingly testing NATO’s eastern flank, how dangerous is the present trajectory? Does the Western narrative of a Ukrainian turning point match the underlying strategic realities?

Anatol Lieven is a senior fellow and at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft based in Washington.