A ceasefire extended "in principle" for two more weeks — while the Pentagon simultaneously ships thousands more troops to the Middle East. That's the tension sitting under the tape this morning, and it's why the dollar caught a bid and USTs dipped red overnight.

Inside today's show:

— Diplomacy: AP says both sides agreed "in principle" to extend the ceasefire ~2 weeks. VP Vance to lead a potential round two. Trump hints at a deal by the King's US visit April 27-29. But the Pentagon is sending thousands more troops with additional strikes and ground operations reportedly back on the table.

— The Chokehold Cracks: A sanctioned Iranian VLCC just slipped past the US blockade. Iran is routing through alternative ports. 20+ commercial ships passed through Hormuz in 24 hours. Meanwhile 103 empty tankers — 54 of them VLCCs — are inbound to US ports to load American crude. API overnight printed a surprise +6.1M barrel build vs -1.3M expected.

— Tale of Two Tapes: Luxury gets hammered. Hermes -9%, Kering -9.1% on rev misses and a China slowdown. France -3% on weak tourist flows. ASML raises FY26 guidance to €36-40B. CEO: "demand for chips is outpacing supply." Consumer down. Compute up.

— Big Banks Beat: Bank of America EPS $1.11 vs $1.01 est. Profits +17%. IB +21%, trading +13%, equities +30%. Moynihan calls it a "resilient American economy." Morgan Stanley $3.43 vs $3.00 est on $20.58B revenue.

— The $300B Storm (Editorial): It's Tax Day. Treasury projects the TGA will build to $1.025T — a +$322B drain. Reserves fall from $3.2T toward $2.8-2.9T with no reverse repo buffer left. Fed T-bill purchases slowing from $40B to $25B. SOFR-IORB spread already -2bps. History is unkind to risk assets after tax-day TGA spikes.

— Bull Tape vs Bear Survey: Hartnett's BofA Fund Manager Survey — growth expectations lowest since early 2022, inflation pessimism highest since 2021, sentiment worst since last summer. Hartnett: "not a close-eyes-and-buy market." Meanwhile Bessent sees growth topping 3-3.5% and tariffs snapping back to prior levels by July.

— Plus: Treasury quietly asks private credit firms to hand over business models and ties to the regulated system. The fog is starting to clear.

Movers: IMMP +140%, NIC +118%, SNAP +8% (cutting 1,000 jobs), HOOD +6.5%, IONQ +5%, AVGO +3%, KER -9.1%, RMS -9%.

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