Fed Chair's First Move (YOUR Savings Are The Target)

The Macro Atlas
リアクション
2026年05月27日
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman on May 22, 2026 — and within days, he signaled a shift to the "Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE" as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. That metric reads 2.4%. The CPI you actually live with reads 3.8%. That gap isn't an accident — it's the foundation of a strategy to cut rates, lower the government's borrowing costs, and quietly inflate away $39 trillion in national debt at the expense of savers, retirees, and anyone holding cash.

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📌 Topics covered:
Kevin Warsh's first policy signals as Fed Chair
Trimmed mean PCE (2.4%) vs. headline CPI (3.8%) — the 1.4% gap
$39.07 trillion in national debt — $1 trillion/year in interest payments
Interest on debt now exceeds Pentagon and Medicare spending
Japan selling Treasuries as domestic yields hit 2.6–2.7%
China cuts holdings 6% to $652.3 billion
$139 billion in foreign holdings dropped in March 2026
May 13 30-year auction: yields cross 5%, bid-to-cover at 2.30
84% of new debt issued as short-term bills — the refinancing trap
Financial repression: the post-WWII playbook for inflating away debt
Gold past $5,000/oz — what institutions are hedging against
30-year mortgage at 6.51% — a generation locked out of homeownership
Winners (asset owners, debtors) vs. losers (savers, retirees)

📊Sources:
Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Federal Reserve Chairman — Federal Reserve Board of Governors: https://www.federalreserve.gov/
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce
U.S. National Debt Clock and Historical Data — Treasury Direct: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd.htm
Federal Net Interest Costs FY2025 — Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59946
Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities — U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) System: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html
Japan Government Bond Yields — Ministry of Finance Japan: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
China U.S. Treasury Holdings — U.S. Department of the Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury-international-capital-tic-system
Treasury Securities Issuance Data — SIFMA: https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/
Financial Repression Historical Analysis — Reinhart & Sbrancia, IMF Working Paper: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11169.pdf
Gold Spot Price Data — World Gold Council: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices
TIPS Real Yield 10-Year — Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10
Consumer Price Index Data — Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Primary Mortgage Market Survey — Freddie Mac: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Federal Debt to GDP Ratio — FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
CPI Methodology Changes Historical Overview — Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-changes.htm